After the Indiana Pacers failed to close out the New York Knicks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals on Thursday, talk of Game 6 back in Indiana on Saturday being a “must-win” began. It’s not a must-win, obviously, with the Pacers holding a 3-2 advantage in the series, but you know how one game can shift the perception of any playoff series, let alone one that has been those close (a total of six points have separated the Pacers and Knicks through five games).
If the Knicks win Game 6 and stave off elimination for a second straight time, the general perception will be that Indiana has no chance of winning Game 7 in Madison Square Garden.
Knicks vs. Pacers: Where to watch Game 6, stream series, schedule, odds, game times, NBA playoff updates
Sam Quinn
Knicks vs. Pacers: Where to watch Game 6, stream series, schedule, odds, game times, NBA playoff updates
But is that true? Historically speaking, teams that have failed to close out a series in Game 6 at home have gone on to compile a 10-15 record in Game 7 since 2003, when the NBA went to seven-game series in all rounds. That isn’t a great record by any means, but a 40% is far from no chance. It’s getting close to a coin flip.
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Take a look at that list, and you’ll see that the news gets even better for Pacers fans when you consider that the most recent examples of this scenario have gone decidedly in the favor of the team that lost Game 6 at home — with four out of the last five having recovered to win Game 7 on the road.
The Warriors did it this season, losing Game 6 at home to the Rockets before going to Houston and winning Game 7.
The Heat famously did it in the 2023 ECF against the Celtics, who came back from a 3-0 hole to tie Miami 3-3 heading back to Boston. You could not have any more momentum working against you than that Miami team did after Derrick White stole Game 6 from them on a buzzer-beating tip-in, but Miami rallied the troops and got it done in Boston.
The Celtics did the same thing to Miami in 2022, losing Game 6 in Boston before going to Miami and winning Game 7 to qualify for the Finals. The Warriors did it to the Kings in 2023.
When it comes to Saturday night’s action, the Pacers are favored (-3.5) to win Game 6, via BetMGM, and are -375 to win the series and advance to the NBA Finals.
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This is to say that Game 6 is not a must-win for the Pacers. It may feel that way, but it isn’t. Heck, the last time the Pacers faced this exact scenario, they came out on top. It was 2005, and Indiana failed to close out the Celtics in Game 6 at home but went to Boston and won Game 7.
So this can be done. The Pacers aren’t going to approach Game 6 like it’s some sort of house-money game, of course. It’s not even close to that. If we’re going on historical results, which realistically don’t have much to do with any future outcomes that are defined by an entirely different set of circumstances anyway, there’s been a better chance of the Game 6 loser also losing Game 7. The odds would not be on Indiana’s side in New York.
Still, the Knicks have to win Game 6. There’s been a lot of talk about all the pressure on Indiana, but if you remove the emotion from it, that’s not true. New York has no room for error, but Indiana still does, even if the margin is shrinking.
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